covid diary: day 112

knee high x2 (at least)

After 18 full centuries compressed into only six months, we've made it to the second half of the year! There are now 125 days until Election Day, and 203 days until Inauguration Day. A veritable eternity in 2020 time, but hopefully we'll get there.

Yesterday, Dr. Anthony Fauci, who is largely regarded as the nation's highest infectious disease expert, testified before the Senate on how the pandemic is going. Spoiler alert: It's not so great. Or, as Dr. Fauci put it, we're "going in the wrong direction." Yesterday, there were 44,000 new cases of COVID-19 reported. Fully 45 of the 50 states have higher rates of infection this week than they did last week. Texas, Arizona, South Carolina, Oklahoma, Idaho, and Alaska all had new record numbers of infection statewide yesterday.

And yet, people like Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) said to Dr. Fauci in yesterday's hearing, "We shouldn't presume that a group of experts somehow knows what's best for everyone." Yeah, ok, Rand Paul. Like you weren't presuming to know what's best for everyone when you showed symptoms of COVID-19, got tested, and then spent DAYS going to meetings and swimming in the Senate pool even though you knew you were waiting for test results and could potentially be infecting lots of people before you found out that you did, in fact, have COVID-19? Like that? Thank you, but I think I'll listen to Dr. Fauci instead.

So anyway, Dr. Fauci warned yesterday that unless Americans start really changing their behavior (ahem like wearing masks!) we could start seeing 100,000 new cases every day. I can't even wrap my brain around what that would look like. But those numbers made me think. We've been seeing a steep increase of rate of infection, but not a corresponding steep increase in rate of death.

Until today.

As I write this, it's 7 p.m., and more than 1,200 people have died from COVID-19 so far today. As Dr. Fauci puts it, "Deaths always lag considerably behind cases." And now there has been enough time since states started reopening for the deaths to start spiking. We're just about at 130,000 total deaths (since March!!), and I'm worried about where we're headed.

This afternoon, Mike found this map from the Harvard Global Health Institute and partners, who break down the data in counties all over the country. They track the number of cases per 100,000 people, plus the rate of increase or decrease in spread, and put it all together to offer advice for what that county should do.

The colors correspond to the level of risk in the county, as well as the recommended actions the county should be taking.

Ok, let's zoom in a little. Look at Indiana. I've helpfully added a red asterisk to Marshall County, where we live, and a white plus sign to Elkhart County, where my brother lives. As you can see, this is uh oh territory. We're in orange, accelerated spread, and J's in red, tipping point. Yikes.

In other news, this afternoon the governor held a press conference to announce that he is postponing stage 4 of the reopening (Back to Spreading the Virus Hoosiers Back on Track Indiana) from July 4 to July 17. Sports are part of stage 4, which is why Liam is supposed to start tennis next week, but for now it's unclear if that will actually happen. I was talking to Bethany today, and she said that she also has doubts about in-person school this fall, even though all the districts are emphatically saying it will happen. I guess we won't have to wait too long to find out. Gulp.

I worked a long day today, then I took a very hot bike ride followed by a very cold shower. Liam and his friend did yard work for one of the speech coaches for five hours today (the coach is retired from being our school superintendent, and he's immunocompromised and can't be out in the heat), and he came home filthy and tired and immediately retired to the basement icebox. Mike worked in a part of the factory where they can't have AC, so he's happy to be home. It's enchilada night. On we go.

Nationwide cases: 2,678,202. Deaths: 127,970.