covid diary: day 106

Oh hey. Hi there. Remember the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention? The CDC? You know, those folks in Atlanta who used to be¹ in charge of stuff like responding to disease outbreaks. Yeah, them. I know, it's hard to remember because it's been so long since they were relevant and/or allowed to speak. It's been fully one million years² since we've had actual responsible scientists with data conducting this train, so it's understandable if you forgot the CDC even existed or what it was supposed to do.

But today, CDC Director Dr. Robert Redfield³ said on a conference call that the CDC estimates that for every case of COVID-19 that's been reported, there have actually been 10 additional cases. So say you have 2.3 million cases reported (which we do, and then some). That means the actual number is something more like 23 million. If you're a math like I totally am,⁴ you did that quick calculation in your head⁵ and discovered that it works out to a whopping 6.9 percent of the total population.

According to Johns Hopkins, we would need to have 70 percent to 80 percent of the total population to have antibodies in order to achieve the fabled herd immunity. So basically, this never-ending nightmare that we're all stuck in? We would need to multiply that by 10⁶ to come anywhere near herd immunity.

Important note: These cases are here whether the testing is done or not. I seriously get so mad when people (or the president) say that the increased infection numbers are a function of increased testing. THEY. ARE. NOT. And you know how you know that? Because the number of infections are going up, but so is the rate of infection. And the rate of infection is a number that takes into account both the number of positive tests and the total number of tests conducted. So the "we're doing so many tests" thesis is already baked into this particular pie.

Anyway, I guess that CDC report kind of better explains this map from Axios:

And this graph from Johns Hopkins. Take a look particularly at where we were in the "worst" of the early pandemic, and where we are as of today. That's right, our five-day rolling average now is HIGHER than anything we've seen so far.⁷ We're right up there with Brazil!

Good times, amirite?

In news not close enough to home, my niece and great-nephew are moving away tomorrow, so today was goodbye times. I'm going to miss them both terribly. You know this is true because (a) I allowed my picture to be taken and (b) I'm even posting it here.⁸ I made her promise that she would send many (many!) pictures of their continuing adventures, and I'll have to make do with that.

E is just the cutest.

In other news, a certain bargain airline is having a huge sale, and we had a ton of credits from pre-pandemic times just laying around, so in a fit of optimism, we bought plane tickets for fall break. I put our chances of actually going somewhere in the range of 15 percent. There are a LOT of hurdles to clear first, including but not limited to possible changes to the school schedule, infection rates at home and at our destination, and whether Earth continues to rotate around the sun and be habitable to humans.⁹ You know, the small stuff. Anyway, it's something to hope for, and if it doesn't work out we just go back to having credits, so we don't lose any kind of investment. Stick a pin in this date, and in late October, we can come back and see how good I am at prognosticating. Well, as long as the planet's still here by then.

Nationwide cases: 2,404,781. Deaths: 122,320.

¹ Pre-January 2017.
² Since January 2017.
³ Trust me, he's not as ruggedly good-looking as his name might lead you to imagine.
⁴ For the love of god, don't ask me to math.
⁵ Or you looked up an online percentage calculator. Not that I know anything about that.
⁶ Math again. Dammit.
⁷ But wait I thought the president said pandemic times were over?!?!? NOT SO FAST.
⁸ Both things I hate with a fiery passion, but there's not much I wouldn't do for either of them.
⁹ Listen, I don't take this stuff for granted anymore.