it's bad out there

 So, since I'm not an expert in health policy, I'm going to quote someone who is. I've talked about Andy Slavitt before. I follow him on Twitter and find his daily updates to be equal parts informative and terrifying. Yesterday's update was definitely the latter. I've combined his thread into one text block, but otherwise these are his words as he posted them.

COVID Update December 17: This is my worst thread. I hate writing it. But I have to write it. 

This is what happened yesterday in California. 61,000 new cases in a single day. 

But it’s not the cases. It’s the trajectory. 35,000 prior peak.

This is what happened in Minnesota. It’s not the decline to still historically high numbers. It’s that the governor was forced to majorly let up on restrictions yesterday at the first sign— a sure fire sign they are coming back.

You may ask “how can he be forced?” And you would be right, but the legislature has unique authority in Minnesota. They had threatened to remove the health commissioner & throw the state into disarray.

In New York, Andrew Cuomo had a press conference about COVID. It wasn’t the press conference itself where he warned about an overwhelmed system. He had done that last Spring. It was that this time he kept emphasizing the economy in his pleas to New Yorkers.

Yesterday one American died every 30 seconds. But no one has the tolerance to talk about it any longer. 

We’re forced to talk about the economy. Because enough people are apparently no long motivated by 3600 people dying. In a day.

Are we at the bad part yet? It’s getting worse. The people dying today got infected before Thanksgiving. Before people infected their families. And Thanksgiving was a sh-t show by all accounts.

So I have taken a peak at what the numbers suggest comes next. And that’s when I got even more horrified.

If things continue as they are— full hospitals, threats of strikes, PPE running out— and very soft, late, in enforced public health measures— what we are experiencing now will get much worse. 

Many Americans will absolutely as a badge of pride gather in large numbers for Christmas now. We know this for sure.

Because of: Memorial Day, July 4, Labor Day & Thanksgiving. 

What does all this mean? 

It means that despite beginning vaccine rollouts, we may not have even have the deaths we will have by the time we get to spring.

It means we could have days in January where more than 6000 people die in a day from COVID.

Much of this is driven by non-compliant behavior. People who refuse. A president who doesn’t care. Essential workers we push out. People who live in poor working conditions. 

And Kristy Noem.

Even Ron DeSantis has been willing to look at CDC reports on outbreaks. But not Kristy Noem.

Even with governors who care, who are doing their best, they are facing such pressure from non-believers, legislators— all 100% followers of Trump— that they compromise on their compromises.

Conversation yesterday. “We know gyms should be closed. But we’re getting tremendous pushback that they should be open 50%. So I’m holding the line and opening at 25%.”

These showboat compromises are good for no one. 

I have sympathy for all of the people who have to make tough decisions.

But there are easy decisions too. Easy decisions are the ones where more people live if you make them. Easy decisions mean supporting the people losing their livelihoods so we can be safe. 

Right now there are people who are in 4 categories of compliance:

1-Taking very few risks

2-Taking more risks than they think

3-Forced to take risks because of job/living

4-Carefree

It would be one thing if the losses were confined to people in category 4. Expressing their liberty.

But category 3 (essential workers, ppl facing homelessness, multi-gen houses) suffer disproportionately based on Category 4 behavior. 

As prevalence grows more & more people in the first 2 categories— occasionally letting their guards down but trying very hard— are more & more at risk.

As are people who need the hospital for other reasons.

We are poised for science to bail us out before too long. But here, the same elements that plague us we will face again. People who choose not to be safe because they see numbers dropping. People who spread false rumors about the vaccines.

I write these painful perspectives because you have to be smart for everyone who isn’t. It’s that driver’s ed defensive driving principal we learned in high school. It won’t always be there. But it will for now.

In the meantime 2 things. First— ask every person you agree to spend time with this simple question: Have you been in contact w someone who tested positive for COVID?

Ask them. It may feel weird but ask them. Amazing how many people will answer yes when they think about it. 

There’s little we can do about people who don’t care. About a leader who feeds into it. History will be the judge. In the meantime, please, get there to see it & protect your family & neighbors. 

Let's keep fighting.